With the red-hot Android 2.2 on the horizon, and Microsoft's much-anticipated Windows Phone 7 hoping to resurrect the company's smartphone OS, there's a lot on the line for the industry as a whole. Let's take a look at two possible scenarios—one if Android takes the lead, and the other if Windows Mobile does.
Scenario One: Android Takes the Lead
In mid-March, the news hit the wire that Android devices had collaboratively overtaken the iPhone in US market share, unleashing an explosion of news sounding the death knell for iPhone and the crowned future for Android. While there was a definite element of hyperbole, it's important to realize the significance of this news. For Android, an operating system only a few years old, to have captured 28 percent of the US smartphone market, plus become the platform of choice for heavyweights such as HTC, is pretty momentous.
This scenario predicts Android continuing to leap forward, maybe even eventually surpassing RIM's BlackBerry, the smartphone leader. From there, Android could even overtake BlackBerry in the enterprise, where it's currently the clear leader. (Again, a stretch, but if it continues uptake at its current rate, it's possible.)
The two biggest contributors to Android's success thus far, in my opinion, are (1) the failures of Windows Mobile, which has pushed an army of leading manufacturers to follow Android, and (2) Android's open-source nature, which has propelled its app store forward, allowing it to compete with Apple's app marketplace. For Android to truly take over, the platform will need to continue to evolve to serve enterprise needs, especially in Exchange support.
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